Similarly, a dash means it occurred in none of the simulations. (For a specific set of game outcomes, the probabilities that are generated may be slightly different each time the simulation is run because of statistical noise.) In these scenarios, a checkmark doesn't necessarily mean a team has mathematically clinched a playoff berth, a division title or a first-round bye it means that the particular outcome occurred in 100 percent of the new round of simulations. When you choose results for upcoming games, a new set of simulations is triggered, and the forecast numbers change accordingly. A team’s current quarterback adjustment is based on its likely starter in its next game and how much better or worse that QB is than the team’s top starter. Our quarterback-adjusted Elo model incorporates news reports to project likely starters for every upcoming game and uses our quarterback Elo ratings to adjust win probabilities for those games. Our traditional model uses Elo ratings (a measure of strength based on head-to-head results and quality of opponent) to calculate teams’ chances of winning their regular-season games and advancing to and through the playoffs. How this works: This forecast is based on 50,000 simulations of the season and updates after every game.
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